Enchantments Lottery FAQ
Answers use this site's own estimates for the 2027 season unless they say otherwise. Estimates were generated from the 2022–2026 lotteries. "Median" means the middle day of the May 15 – October 31 season: half the days are easier, half are harder.
Which zone is easiest to win?
Eightmile / Caroline, then Stuart, then Snow. Colchuck and the Core are in a different league.
| Zone | Median first-choice odds |
|---|---|
| Eightmile / Caroline | 24% |
| Stuart | 15% |
| Snow | 11% |
| Colchuck | 4% |
| Core | 3% |
Core figures are for a party of two; group size does not change the odds in the other zones.
If your goal is simply to camp somewhere in the permit area, Eightmile has about twice the median odds of Snow and six to nine times the odds of Colchuck or the Core.
What are the odds for the Core Zone?
Bad, and worse in summer. The season median for a party of two is about 3%. In July and August the average day is under 2%, and late September is not much better at about 2.5%. The last two weeks of October average over 40% because few people apply for them.
The Core is the only zone where group size changes the odds. A solo applicant has about three and a half times the odds of a pair on the same date; a party of four has roughly two-thirds of a pair's odds. The Core page shows every date for every group size.
Is it easier on a weekday?
Yes. Friday and Saturday entries are the hardest in every zone, at roughly two-thirds the odds of a Sunday through Thursday entry. Season averages (Core for a party of two):
| Zone | Mon–Thu | Fri–Sat | Sun |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core | 8.6% | 5.4% | 11.0% |
| Colchuck | 12.6% | 7.8% | 14.9% |
| Snow | 28.2% | 19.8% | 28.1% |
| Eightmile | 40.4% | 25.8% | 40.7% |
| Stuart | 30.0% | 18.9% | 33.6% |
These are season averages, which are pulled up by easy shoulder-season dates. The weekday effect is real, but the month matters more.
Which month is easiest?
October and May, then June. July and August are the hardest everywhere, and September is only slightly better. Average first-choice odds by month (Core for a party of two):
| Zone | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 24% |
| Colchuck | 18% | 8% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 37% |
| Snow | 62% | 26% | 7% | 6% | 10% | 59% |
| Eightmile | 62% | 37% | 16% | 14% | 24% | 76% |
| Stuart | 55% | 27% | 10% | 8% | 14% | 62% |
The catch is conditions. Mid-May usually means snow on the trail and frozen lakes above Colchuck. Late October means short days, cold nights, and a real chance of the first storm. The easy dates are easy for a reason. Late September and the first week of October are a common compromise: larch season, somewhat lower demand than August, and usually still passable.
Are the odds getting worse every year?
Not steadily. Season-average Core odds for a party of two ran about 9% in 2022, dipped to under 6% in 2024, and were back near 9% in 2025 and 2026. The other zones follow the same shape. The prediction on this site averages all five years, so it neither extends the 2024 dip nor assumes the recovery will continue.
Does choosing a 2nd and 3rd choice hurt my odds of winning my first choice?
No. Alternates are only looked at if your first choice has already lost. They cannot cost you anything, and leaving them blank throws away free chances. See the how the lottery works page for the draw order.
What should my 2nd and 3rd choices be?
Something genuinely easier than your first choice. Two common patterns that work:
- Same zone, a weekday instead of a Friday or Saturday, or a date in June or October instead of August.
- Same date, an easier zone. From a Colchuck or Snow camp you can still day-hike into the Core.
The pattern that does not work is three variations of a hard choice, such as three consecutive Core Saturdays in August. Run it through the calculator and watch the total odds barely move.
Can I day-hike the Core on a Colchuck or Snow permit?
Yes. Day hiking anywhere in the permit area needs only the free, self-issued day-use permit available at the trailheads. You must camp in the zone named on your overnight permit. A Core permit is the exception that goes the other way: it lets you camp in any of the five zones. Many people do the through-hike in a day from a Colchuck or Snow base camp.
How much does it cost?
$6 to apply, non-refundable. If you win, $5 per person per day when you claim the permit. A party of four on a three-day trip pays $60 plus the $6 application.
When do I find out?
Results are posted around mid-March. Log in to Recreation.gov to check rather than waiting for an email. You must claim and pay by the deadline or the permit goes back into the pool.
What happens to unclaimed permits?
Unclaimed permits are released on Recreation.gov on April 1, first come, first served. Check Recreation.gov ahead of time for the release time. Core dates are rarely available; Eightmile and Stuart dates are the most likely to be left.
Is there a walk-up option?
There is a daily lottery during the season for a share of each zone's quota. It runs seven days a week. You apply on Recreation.gov from a phone the day before you want to enter, and you must be within one mile of the Wenatchee River Ranger District office in Leavenworth when you apply. If applications exceed permits, a drawing decides, so being first does not help.
How accurate are these estimates?
They are simulations built from real application data, not guesses, but they are still estimates. A 10% prediction means that in re-runs of recent lotteries, a choice like yours won about one time in ten. When the method was tested by predicting the 2025 and 2026 lotteries from the years before them, predictions were off by about 5 percentage points on average, and within each range of predictions (under 5%, 5–10%, and so on) the average prediction was within 2 points of how often those choices actually won. The main things that would make 2027 different are a change in quota, a change in how many people apply, or a change in the draw rules. The methodology page explains the model and its limits.
Why does a date show "no data"?
Nobody applied for that zone and date in any of the years the site uses, so there is nothing to base an estimate on. It is rare and usually happens at the very start or end of the season.