Stuart Zone
Stuart Lake and Horseshoe Lake sit at the base of Mount Stuart's north side, reached from the same trailhead as Colchuck: the trail splits about two and a half miles in, left to Stuart Lake and right up to Colchuck. Stuart Lake is about four and a half miles from the car with moderate gain, a larch-lined lake under one of the biggest granite faces in the state.
Stuart is the second-easiest permit, with a median day around 15% and an average July day around 10%. Like Eightmile it is not a practical base for the Core, so it draws people who want a quiet lake rather than the through-hike. If the Colchuck trailhead is your plan and Colchuck itself is out of reach, Stuart is the alternate that gets you the same drive and the same first two miles of trail.
Predicted 2027 odds by date
Each day shows the estimated chance that a Stuart first choice for that entry date wins in the 2027 lottery. The median day of the season is 15%. Group size does not affect the odds in this zone. The methodology page explains how these are estimated.
May
June
July
August
September
October
Average odds by month
The 2027 column averages the predictions above. The other columns average the simulated odds of the comparable dates in each past lottery.
| Month | 2027 (predicted) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 55% | 66% | 68% | 46% | 50% | 50% |
| Jun | 27% | 28% | 32% | 26% | 21% | 25% |
| Jul | 10% | 11% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 11% |
| Aug | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 10% |
| Sep | 14% | 15% | 12% | 11% | 15% | 17% |
| Oct | 62% | 68% | 58% | 47% | 73% | 68% |
Run your exact choices in the calculator
Other zones
For strategy across zones, see the FAQ and how the lottery works.