Eightmile / Caroline Zone
Eightmile Lake, Little Eightmile, and Lake Caroline lie in the drainage south of Icicle Road, reached from the Eightmile Lake trailhead. The walk to Eightmile Lake is gentle, about three and a half miles with modest gain, which makes it the easiest overnight in the permit area on foot as well as on paper. Lake Caroline is a stiffer climb beyond, with big views of Cashmere Mountain.
This is the easiest permit to win. The median day predicts about 24%, and the average July day is still around 16%. September weekdays average about 27%. It does not connect on foot to the Core, so it is a destination in its own right rather than a base for the through-hike, which is exactly why fewer people apply.
Much of the area burned in 2012 and the forest is regrowing; expect sun and little shade on the lower trail.
Predicted 2027 odds by date
Each day shows the estimated chance that a Eightmile / Caroline first choice for that entry date wins in the 2027 lottery. The median day of the season is 24%. Group size does not affect the odds in this zone. The methodology page explains how these are estimated.
May
June
July
August
September
October
Average odds by month
The 2027 column averages the predictions above. The other columns average the simulated odds of the comparable dates in each past lottery.
| Month | 2027 (predicted) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 62% | 65% | 68% | 66% | 58% | 60% |
| Jun | 37% | 39% | 45% | 36% | 32% | 28% |
| Jul | 16% | 17% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 15% |
| Aug | 14% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 16% |
| Sep | 24% | 26% | 21% | 20% | 25% | 27% |
| Oct | 76% | 85% | 79% | 59% | 81% | 79% |
Run your exact choices in the calculator
Other zones
For strategy across zones, see the FAQ and how the lottery works.