Colchuck Zone
Colchuck Lake sits at about 5,600 feet under Dragontail Peak and Colchuck Peak, about four miles and 2,200 feet up from the Stuart Lake trailhead. It is the prettiest single lake in the permit area that you can reach in a morning, and it is the staging point for Aasgard Pass, which starts at the far end of the lake.
That second fact is why Colchuck is the second-hardest permit. A Colchuck permit lets you camp at the lake and day-hike up Aasgard into the Core, which is how a lot of people see the Enchantments. The median day predicts about 4%, and Friday or Saturday entries in July and August are under 2%. Sunday-to-Thursday entries and dates in June or October are where the better odds are. Group size does not change the estimate here.
Camping is on designated sites around the lake. The lake is usually frozen into June.
Predicted 2027 odds by date
Each day shows the estimated chance that a Colchuck first choice for that entry date wins in the 2027 lottery. The median day of the season is 4%. Group size does not affect the odds in this zone. The methodology page explains how these are estimated.
May
June
July
August
September
October
Average odds by month
The 2027 column averages the predictions above. The other columns average the simulated odds of the comparable dates in each past lottery.
| Month | 2027 (predicted) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 18% | 22% | 21% | 16% | 18% | 16% |
| Jun | 8% | 8% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| Jul | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Aug | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Sep | 4% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% |
| Oct | 37% | 43% | 32% | 25% | 46% | 42% |
Run your exact choices in the calculator
Other zones
For strategy across zones, see the FAQ and how the lottery works.