Snow Zone
The Snow Zone covers Nada Lake and the Upper and Lower Snow Lakes on the eastern side of the range, reached from the Snow Lakes trailhead on Icicle Road. It is a long approach, around six to seven miles and 4,000 feet to the upper lake, through open forest and burn. The reward is a base camp at about 5,400 feet from which the Core is a further 1,500-foot climb, and a permit that is roughly three times easier than Colchuck.
The median season day predicts about 11%. Late May and October are often wide open; July and August average around 6–7%. Snow is the sensible alternate for a Core first choice if you would rather approach from the east.
Predicted 2027 odds by date
Each day shows the estimated chance that a Snow first choice for that entry date wins in the 2027 lottery. The median day of the season is 11%. Group size does not affect the odds in this zone. The methodology page explains how these are estimated.
May
June
July
August
September
October
Average odds by month
The 2027 column averages the predictions above. The other columns average the simulated odds of the comparable dates in each past lottery.
| Month | 2027 (predicted) | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May | 62% | 71% | 70% | 57% | 59% | 65% |
| Jun | 26% | 29% | 31% | 21% | 24% | 20% |
| Jul | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 8% |
| Aug | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 8% |
| Sep | 10% | 10% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 12% |
| Oct | 59% | 67% | 57% | 44% | 63% | 67% |
Run your exact choices in the calculator
Other zones
For strategy across zones, see the FAQ and how the lottery works.